The Montréal Canadiens are in their toughest bind of the 32 NHL franchises. Last Saturday, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, a member of Montreal’s young core, signed a 6.1-million dollar “revenge” offer sheet for one year with the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canadiens have until this Saturday to decide whether or not to match. After weighing both options, the cons of matching simply outweigh the pros. This essay is to convince you that matching Kotkaniemi’s offer sheet would press Montreal into a sticky situation whereas the alternative can set the Canadiens up for success in more than one way.
Reeling off the franchise’s first Stanley Cup Final appearance in the 21st century, the Canadiens signed Mike Hoffman and David Savard to add to their all-in Cup bid, depriving them of the cap space necessary to re-sign Kotkaniemi. So far, the Habs have spent over 10.5 million dollars in free agent acquisitions, not to mention resignings like Joel Armia. In the offseason, teams may exceed the cap by 10% ($8.15 million) and the Canadiens have already exceeded it by over $2.2 million. Matching the offer sheet would put them over the offseason cap limit, so they would have to trade a quality player, almost certainly Jonathan Drouin. Then, the Habs would have to offer Kotkaniemi 6.1 million dollars just to qualify him each summer until he becomes an unrestricted free agent unless he agrees to an extension. Simply, matching Kotkaniemi’s offer sheet brings more trouble than reward.
To further incentivise the Canadiens not to match, the Hurricanes will have to forfeit their first and third-round picks this season if Montreal doesn’t match. Those picks could be extremely valuable if Carolina falters after losing Norris-calibre Defenseman Dougie Hamilton among others. Moreover, this draft class’s top prospects (Shane Wright, Matthew Savoie, and Brad Lambert) headline an exceptional crop of under-18 talent. Even if Montreal wants to win now, they could trade just the first-round pick for a center who would probably be more effective than Kotkaniemi. Either way, the Canadiens can easily replace “KK” with the compensation they would receive whether by draft or trade.
Finally, giving Kotkaniemi to Carolina puts them in a pickle similar to how matching the offer sheet bends the Canadiens into a very uncomfortable position. The offer sheet is thought of as a payback after the Canadiens offer sheeted Carolina’s superstar Sebastian Aho. But what if the Canadiens pulled an uno reverse card? After signing Kotkaniemi, the Hurricanes would be over a million dollars over the cap to start the season, which would be a problem to begin with, not to mention future implications and the loss of valuable picks. It’s definitely a cherry on top, but letting Kotkaniemi go sticks it to the Hurricanes for their pettiness and caves in their options.
Losing a player like Kotkaniemi is never ideal, but keeping him would only sour their wounds. Should they match, the Canadiens wouldn’t be able to trade Kotkaniemi for a year, further limiting their options. The compensation picks are a perfect plan B escape that opens up their options in multiple ways while retaliating against the Hurricanes for the unforeseen offer sheet. Plan B, so to speak, would allow the Canadiens to acquire a replacement for Kotkaniemi who may be even better than KK. Though Kotkaniemi can still fulfill his untapped potential, the chances of it happening in Montreal are slim to none considering all the pressure that comes with being a six million dollar Hab.
