The Chicago Blackhawks and Frank Nazar agreed to a seven year contract extension worth $46.13 million on Thursday with an average annual value of $6.59 million. Nazar has been a highly touted prospect who produced 26 points in 53 games after being called up from the AHL. He has been brimming with potential and the Blackhawks are laying a great foundation with a deal that may become the best bargain in the NHL for years to come, especially with an ever-rising salary cap. They may have also just cracking that foundation and divided their locker room by signing this bargain and it could lead to Connor Bedard’s departure if they aren’t careful.
A culture-changing move
It is no secret that Chicago was a major disappointment last season. Coming off the signings of Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen, many expected both Bedard and the Blackhawks to take the next step and challenge for a playoff spot. Instead, they finished second last in the NHL. Truthfully, Chicago has disappointed in every season since the 2016-17 campaign, the last time they played a playoff game at United Center. The culture in Chicago was slowly becoming toxic and increasingly accepting of losing. Their scandal with Kyle Beach during that time only added to the erosion of their once great culture.
The Blackhawks were badly in need of a culture reset and Frank Nazar’s deal may be the foundation. Nazar has only ever been a part of successful teams, going back to his days with NTDP. Internationally, he contributed in key roles to the US’s first place finishes in both the World Juniors in 2024 and the World Championships earlier this summer. With the University of Michigan, he never failed to reach the Frozen Four and was arguably the most important Wolverine in 2024. He was already becoming a locker room leader after being called up from the AHL and this contract will likely help rebuild a winning culture by setting a precedent for key players in Chicago to take less money for the betterment of the team. The Florida Panthers had not won a playoff series from 1996 to 2022 and were in tailspin in the summer of 2020 having just been bounced by the Islanders. Their revival was triggered by their new GM, Bill Zito, finding diamonds in the rough in Anthony Duclair and Gustav Forsling and signing them to dirt-cheap contracts. Then, that summer, their captain Aleksander Barkov took a major discount on his contract, similar to what Nazar just did, causing his contemporary and future teammates, such as Matthew Tkachuk, to follow suit. This created the championship culture that has driven the Panthers to back to back Stanley Cups (of course, the Panthers needed some more fortunate moments but the point that Nazar’s deal lays the foundation for a rebuild of Chicago’s culture still remains intact).
Connor Bedard’s contract negotiations
A logical follow up to rebuilding that winning culture after Nazar’s deal would be Bedard taking less money on his extension. However, if Bedard ever intended to sign a below market value deal, that deal should have been signed by now. Hence, it is logical to conclude that Bedard is looking for a mega extension (possibly in the range of $13 million AAV or more). The Blackhawks can either bend to his demands or negotiate intensely with their generational talent but Nazar’s deal may have triggered a future Bedard exit in both scenarios.
If the Blackhawks do bend to Bedard’s will in their negotiation, they risk fracturing their locker room and hindering the development of a culture where players take less to give the team a better chance to win. The locker room would likely be divided into two groups of players wearing the same uniform. One group would believe Bedard had every right to demand his extravagant contract and they will do the same when their contracts are negotiated. The other group would believe Bedard is prioritizing personal interests above team success, especially in comparison to Nazar. A divided locker room almost never leads to success as seen with Vancouver’s struggles last season. Furthermore, tensions (stemming from both Bedard’s contract and the losing that would likely follow) could cause Bedard to consider joining other teams whether via a trade demand or free agency once his lucrative deal concludes. He already showed many signs of frustration with the losing last season and in this scenario that would not stop.
To avoid the situation above with a fractured locker room, Chicago could of course negotiate harshly with Bedard to minimize the cap hit of his extension. Nazar’s contract will be an excellent leverage point if they do so. If they are successful, they could likely leverage all of their prospects into taking team friendly deals when their contracts are negotiated considering both their generational talent/franchise cornerstone and arguably their second player in Nazar both took steep discounts (although Bedard may not have done it very willingly). This would certainly give the Blackhawks a much higher probability of building a true contender for the Stanley Cup. However, negotiating in such a way could irreversibly fracture their relationship with Bedard in a way not even winning can fix.
In the summer of 2023, Jeremy Swayman was negotiating his first big money deal with the Boston Bruins. Like Bedard and the Blackhawks, Swayman and the Bruins could not reach an agreement deep in to the summer, leading to an arbitration hearing in which the Bruins called him untrustworthy, as Swayman later revealed in the NHL’s reality TV show, Faceoff: Inside the NHL, last fall. When it came time to sign his next deal the following summer, the relationship had soured to a point where the two sides did not reach an agreement until the day before the Bruins were set to play the Florida Panthers on opening night. This was coming off a very successful season for both the Bruins (seventh place in the NHL) and Swayman full of winning. Swayman was an RFA then and it is beyond a reasonable doubt that he would have signed elsewhere had he been a UFA. If the Blackhawks were to negotiate with Bedard in a similar way, they risk losing him to another team, especially if they fail to truly contend, as soon as his deal expires (keeping in mind that any extension four years or longer would lead to Bedard being a UFA upon expiry).
Will Blackhawks return to powerhouse form or letdown?
The Blackhawks are brimming with potential. Obviously Bedard is the main attraction but they have many superb prospects around him that could be the foundation of a cup winner, such as Artyom Levshunov, Sam Rinzel, Oliver Moore, and Anton Frondell. They also have their goalie of the future in Spencer Knight, once arguably the top prospect in hockey. Of course, they also have a plethora of cap space to splure on free agents, with speculation already arising that Kirill Kaprizov may join them next summer (an excellent use of savings derived from those team friendly contracts) and will only be adding more talent in the next few years via high lottery picks (imagine they drafted either of Gavin McKenna or Landon Dupont or even both in the next two drafts). In spite of how disappointing last season was, the Blackhawks did show major signs of growth in the last quarter of the season, particularly with how they took down the Montreal Canadiens in Ivan Demidov’s debut and forced the Winnipeg Jets, looking to clinch the president’s trophy, to a shootout. Nazar’s deal is extremely favorable for the Blackhawks and could help Chicago catapult to cup contender very soon, especially if Bedard approaches management about a team friendly deal now.
It is just as possible, unfortunately, that the Blackhawks rebuild will fail. Chicago does appear to be loaded with prospects but almost all of them have little to no NHL experience. One of the reasons Chicago is still deep into rebuilding eight years after their last home playoff game is their inability to unlock the potential of their prospects (and young players in general). Many prospects do better once they leave, with key examples being Kirby Dach and Dylan Strome. Even though the Blackhawks are moving in the right direction, their public image most certainly is not as the Kyle Beach scandal still looms over the organization. Moreover, until the Blackhawks begin winning again, it is hard to believe that marque free agents like Kaprizov will want to come to Chicago. Of course, any talk of a Blackhawks contender is contingent on Bedard staying but his extension could wreck his relationship with his teammates and/or management, as outlined above.
Big picture ramifications
Nazar’s deal obviously does not just affect the Blackhawks. It does have a smaller role as a comparable in other players’ negotiations perhaps for his Michigan teammate Rutger McGroarty once he is eligible to extend after next season or his NTDP teammate Cutter Gauthier who is currently eligible for an extension. Its biggest role will most likely be contributing to a league-wide culture where young and promising players sign long term at team friendly rates, trading opportunity for mega deals for security and team success. However, the biggest ramification his deal could have would be a Connor Bedard departure, which in itself would be the most significant event in NHL history.
For years, hockey has been an afterthought in the US market, especially in the southern states, compared to the other pro sports (football & basketball particularly). A free agency where Connor Bedard decides his next team would be just as significant for growing the NHL’s popularity as LeBron James’s the Decision was for the NBA. The aftermath of this hypothetical free agency would instantly draw eyeballs to Bedard’s new team (and the NHL of course). Something the NHL has been lacking for its popularity has been a generational talent who fans could come to hate watch like the NBA has in LeBron. Bedard leaving one of the NHL’s biggest markets in Chicago, especially for a rival like the St. Louis Blues, would certainly rectify that issue. Since the NHL is insistent on expanding to the south, imagine Bedard went to the Kings to follow up on Gretzky’s legacy (and also another Chicago rival) and formed a rivalry with Connor McDavid (similar to the LeBron-Stephen Curry rivalry). The point is that a hypothetical Connor Bedard free agency frenzy could bring hockey to the forefront of professional sports and Nazar’s bargain contract with the Blackhawks may have made that dream for the NHL much more realistic.
