Kevin Shattenkirk was once a serviceable defensemen and an elite asset for the St. Louis Blues in the early 2010s. He was acquired from the Avalanche for former first overall pick Erik Johnson at the 2011 trade deadline. For five and a half seasons, Shattenkirk was a consistent, power play specialist playing in St. Louis’s top four. Then came the summer of 2016. His contract was set to expire the next summer and he was uncommitting to extending with the Blues, so St. Louis naturally began shopping him.
St. Louis was coming off their most successful season to that point, making an appearance in the Western Conference Finals. Hence, they were looking for young, NHL-ready prospects and contributors as part of the return in any Shattenkirk deal. What followed was eight months of shopping Shattenkirk, and St. Louis almost destroying a future dynasty, tainting another contemporary dynasty, and possibly setting themselves up for the next 10 seasons.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning had been contending for the Stanley Cup each spring for the past few seasons, most notably coming two games short against the Chicago Blackhawks in 2015, and losing in game seven to the Pittsburgh Penguins the previous year in the Eastern Conference Finals. That summer, Steven Stamkos actually nearly left Tampa Bay for a number of teams but ultimately resigned for eight years with the Lightning. Unfortunately, he would be injured in mid-November and the Lightning went on to miss the playoffs. However, around the new year, the Lightning reportedly attempted a sign and trade for Shattenkirk that St. Louis agreed to, but Shattenkirk did not. The extension would have been for 7 years, $42 million. The pieces the Lightning would have sent back were never reported.
Based off St. Louis’s demands in other Shattenkirk deals, the trade likely would have revolved around either rookie center Brayden Point or disgruntled winger Jonathan Drouin, alongside other assets. This trade going through would have ruined the dynasty Tampa Bay went on to build on multiple fronts. Obviously, Brayden Point was part of the championship nucleus that won Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, famously scoring in nine straight games in 2021. There are no cups won in Tampa Bay without Point. Dealing Drouin also would have been problematic considering he would later be dealt to the Montreal Canadiens that summer for defenseman Mikhail Sergachev, another key contributor to the Lightning dynasty so Tampa Bay would have essentially downgraded from Sergachev to Shattenkirk. Additionally, Shattenkirk’s extension poses a major obstacle for Tampa to overcome. The Lightning traded for both Ryan McDonagh and JT Miller the following deadline (McDonagh played with Sergachev when the Lightning won their Stanley Cups and Miller was flipped for assets used in the Blake Coleman trade). Shattenkirk’s play drastically fell off for the following two seasons in New York, making his contract untradeable.
Another element to consider is the contemporary present. The Lightning had a major goalie controversy between Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy. If Shattenkirk helps the Lightning remain afloat at the trade deadline, does Tampa opt to keep Bishop instead of dealing him to the Los Angeles Kings? Stamkos had been upgraded to day-to-day status at the beginning of April (nearing a return). If the Lightning made the playoffs with Shattenkirk’s contributions, do they make a deep run with Bishop’s contributions causing management to re-sign him while Vasilevskiy’s confidence begins to shatter? In St. Louis, would Point, Sergachev, or Drouin have helped St. Louis win more Stanley Cups after 2019? The Lightning and their fans are glad these questions never had to be answered because Shattenkirk saved their future dynasty from crumbling before it could begin by refusing to extend in South Florida.
Edmonton Oilers
Backtracking to the summer of 2016, the Oilers and Lightning apparently had a deal to swap Taylor Hall for Kevin Shattenkirk. It seems the Oilers GM at that time, Peter Chiarelli, was very intent on moving Hall considering he almost also dealt him to Ottawa for Cody Ceci (ironically he wound up signing in Edmonton in the summer of 2021). That summer, the Oilers were in desperate need of a right-shot defensemen such that they almost dealt Leon Draisatel (among other pieces like the fourth overall pick!) to Montreal for PK Subban. If Shattenkirk, as opposed to Adam Larsson becomes an Oilers in exchange for Hall, do the Oilers advance past the Anaheim Ducks in the second round or even past the eighth-seeded Nashville Predators in the Western Conference Finals. If the answer to both questions is yes, that means we would have seen Connor McDavid matchup against Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins (they, too, almost landed Shattenkirk that deadline). In hindsight, commissioner Gary Bettman likely wishes this would have been the Stanley Cup Final as opposed to Predators vs Penguins. It is possible that the Oilers would have had to massively overpay Shattenkirk that summer in this scenario, possibly crippling them even today, since he seemed quite intent on landing with an east coast team and Edmonton had previously missed the postseason for 11 straight seasons. Hall would turn out quite injury prone in the years following this trade so it is unlikely the Blues would have benefited very much beyond still winning their 2019 cup. Still, a McDavid vs Crosby Stanley Cup Final would have been legendary (although I believe it would have turned out like Mahomes vs Brady in Super Bowl 55 since the Penguins had much more depth).
Boston Bruins
This deal would have been an UTTER ROBBERY!!! The Blues reportedly asked for DAVID PASTRNAK.. AND both the 14th and 30th overall picks in the 2016 draft which turned out to be Charlie McAvoy and Trent Frederic, respectively. Obviously, the Bruins instantly declined this offer and were much better off for it, making the Stanley Cup Final in 2019 (ironically losing to St. Louis in seven games), set the record for most wins (65) and points (135) in a regular season, mainly due to the contributions of Pastrnak and McAvoy, the two brightest spots today in a Bruins organization that is mired with problems. However, let’s say the Bruins, coming off back to back postseason misses, were actually desperate enough to accept this trade. How bleak would it have gotten in Beantown. For starters, the Bruins likely miss the postseason in 2017 given they were barely the third Atlantic seed even WITH Pastrnak’s 34 goal season. It may be a blessing in disguise, however, since it would have allowed them to draft a prospect like Nick Suzuki or Martin Necas. The succeeding years of Bruins hockey would likely just be the beginning of a rebuild which may have included trading the likes of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara, Tuukka Rask, David Krejci, among others. Suffice to say, this is one of GM Don Sweeney’s best decisions in a tenure otherwise mired with poorer ones.
In St. Louis, it is a MUCH DIFFERENT STORY. Had this trade gone through, the Blues likely still don’t win the cup in 2017, but are likely the Stanley Cup favorite each season to present day. There is only one caveat, unfortunately. With Pastrnak and McAvoy making St. Louis more successful to begin the season in 2019, do the Blues still give their current franchise goaltender Jordan Binnington a chance to right a successful ship and lead them to the cup? If the answer is no, that significantly caps the Blues’ ceiling at possibly just the cup they won in 2019. As well, how they would have managed the cap is another question. Nonetheless, assuming the Blues would have seen Binnington’s potential shining in the minors, and managed their cap situation competently, there is no doubt we would have seen a St. Louis dynasty.
Detroit Red Wings
After 25 consecutive years in the postseason, but having been bounced in the opening round to Tampa Bay in just five games, the Red Wings were looking for a spark so they called St. Louis about Shattenkirk around the draft. The Blues asked for Dylan Larkin as part of a package and the Red Wings instantly hung up as Larkin was the only bright spot in an otherwise weak Red Wings prospect pipeline that would be exposed in the coming years once their veterans showed their age and declined. He was coming off a 45 point rookie season and would go on to become the Red Wings’s captain.
Keeping Larkin was obviously the correct decision from a value standpoint considering Shattenkirk would end up declining very soon after this rejected trade, but knowing that Detroit still hasn’t returned to the postseason, we can’t help but speculate if doing this trade may have helped the Red Wings in the long run by giving them higher picks. This is especially true for the next two seasons. In 2017, the Red Wings may have actually been better as Larkin had a major sophomore slump, giving them a later pick that could have turned into Nick Suzuki. In 2018, the Red Wings undoubtably would have performed much worse, especially if Shattenkirk walked in free agency. If they finish just a spot lower than Montreal, it would have been them with the third overall pick, giving them the opportunity to draft future Ottawa captain and 30 goal scorer Brady Tkachuk instead of eventual bust Filip Zadina. The Red Wings already finished dead last in 2020 but in 2021 perhaps they finish slightly worse with a young and adjusting Tkachuk instead of Larkin and land a top five pick, in which case they would have been able to select one of the nearby Michigan boys (defensemen Owen Power and Luke Hughes and forwards Kent Johnson and Matty Berniers), all of whom, other than Hughes, would turn pro after their Frozen Four runs (so they would’ve jumped into Detroit’s lineup in early April and for any playoff run the Wings had). The Red Wings would undoubtably have a better future (and likely a few trips to the postseason by now) if this trade did go through and the lottery balls fell their way.
The Blues would have benefited slightly from having Larkin, as they used some of the assets in package they actually got from Washington in the Brayden Schenn deal. The two centers have different playstyles, obviously, but both are captains today and are generally the same calibre of player, so we can assume St. Louis’s results these past few seasons would not have changed very much.
Pittsburgh Penguins
At the trade deadline, Brian Lawton tweeted that the Penguins and Capitals were in a bidding war for Shattenkirk. Obviously the Capitals “won” the war in our timeline, but still lost to Pittsburgh. What if Pittsburgh had won? It’s hard to speculate on what the Penguins would have offered beyond their top prospect Daniel Sprong, who would be a very late bloomer, so let’s just assume the deal would have been Sprong and their 2017 first round pick they later used to infamously trade for Ryan Reaves. There is such a thing as adding too much at the deadline and disturbing team chemistry. Would the Capitals have been better off like they were the next year when they actually beat Pittsburgh and won the Stanley Cup? Shattenkirk would have essentially been a rental replacement for the injured Kris Letang. If the Caps did win the Cup in 2017, would they have been as hungry to repeat the next year, possibly leading to any of Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, or even the expansion Vegas Golden Knights instead winning? If the answer is yes and it’s the Lightning that win the cup in 2018, how long does their dynasty go?
Epilogue
Ultimately, St. Louis wound up dealing Shattenkirk to the Washington Capitals for prospect Zach Sanford, a 2017 first round pick, and a conditional second round pick contingent on Shattenkirk resigning in the nation’s capital. Shattenkirk would contribute 14 points in 19 games for the regular season, helping Washington secure the President’s trophy, but only added six points in 13 playoff games, ending with the Capitals premature exit against Pittsburgh. He would join his hometown team, the New York Rangers, that summer on a four year, $26 million contract that would turn into one of the league’s worst before he was bought out in the summer of 2019. Washington won the cup without him in 2018. He ironically signed with the Lightning, won his own cup, signed for $10 million in Anaheim, and spent the last year of his career in Boston, lead by Pastrnak and McAvoy: the two players almost traded for him seven summers earlier. He remains unsigned today. Sanford would turn into a decent contributor for the Blues in his early years, peaking with 30 points in 58 games in 2019-20. St. Louis packaged the 2017 first round pick (27th overall and used to pick Morgan Frost) along with their 2018 first round pick (Joel Farabee at 14th overall) to the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Brayden Schenn that summer. The Blues missed the playoffs in 2018 and obviously won the Stanley Cup in 2019 before dwelling in the middle class of the NHL to present day. The two Flyers picks were dealt together this past January to Calgary.
St. Louis is still very happy with the real life results; no one will ever complain about winning a Stanley Cup. However, it’s interesting to remember they possibly could have squandered the Lightning dynasty, tainted the Penguins one (and maybe even topped off the best expansion story in sports with a Stanley Cup for Vegas), or given us a McDavid vs Crosby Stanley Cup Final while perhaps spurring their own dynasty.
