Each year, the NHL awards the Calder trophy to the player who had the best rookie season. To qualify for this award, the player cannot have played more than 25 games the previous regular season, or more than five games the previous two seasons in any professional league, and they must be younger than 26 when the calendar hits September 15 that year. Last year’s class of rookies was one of the most loaded in league history, with the likes of Macklin Celebrini, Lane Hutson, Matvei Michkov, and Dustin Wolf spearheading the race. The class was so deep that players like Will Smith and Cutter Gauthier, the point and goal leaders, respectively, of college hockey last year, were not even considered for the award by the mass media.
This year’s crop is arguably just as stacked. So how should we evaluate their odds before this season? First, we obviously must consider how talented the player is (the talent is more important to winning this award than how complete of a player they are). We must also consider whether or not their team hopes to contend; the last four winners have played on teams who missed the postseason the previous year. And finally, we should also consider any media narratives that could aid the player’s bid; three of those last four winners played for original six teams that inevitably will draw more media coverage to the rookie’s Calder case. Of course, the more well known the prospect is the more media coverage they will draw at the start of the season, and thus the stronger their Calder odds.
Below is my tier list of Calder candidates, with the first rookies in each tier being the most likely among their cohort to win the award (our prediction is at the bottom).
Tier 1: the frontrunner
Ivan Demidov
This is clearly Demidov’s award to lose. Last season, he scored a goal and an assist in his debut in front of Centre Bell. From that day on, Demidov was already the favorite to win the Calder trophy this season. His sudden, and frankly unexpected, arrival left coach Martin St. Louis little time to implement him into their schemes and lineups. By training camp, Demidov will be much more adjusted to living in North America and to the practice facilities the Canadiens offer their players. During training camp, the coaching staff will get a chance to truly assess Demidov and find a way to leverage his many strengths and hide his few weaknesses. During the season, the Canadiens figure to be a comfortable playoff team and the intense Montreal media will be sure to highlight his Calder case every day.
While he didn’t quite have the same impact last postseason against Washington, he very much showed the hockey that Montreal’s dynasty window has just begun and he will be a force to reckon with for the next 15 years, at least. Expect a 70 point season and the first Montreal Calder repeat.
Tier 2: the main competitors
These are the main threats to Demidov winning the Calder.
Jimmy Snuggerud
After jumping into the Blues’s lineup last season from Minnesota, Snuggerud did not look out of place at all. He was a key contributor in their playoff series against the Jets that saw St. Louis just two seconds away from pulling off an upset over the President’s trophy winner. Snuggerud figures to play in the top six immediately (it would otherwise be terribly irresponsible of management to trade budding winger Zach Bolduc) with dynamic linemates in Robert Thomas and Pavel Buchnevich. The Blues are a darkhorse Stanley Cup contender that may add to their defense during the season. I project a 25+ goal, 55+ point campaign for Snuggerud.
Zayne Parekh
If you’re looking for a repeat of Lane Hutson’s Calder winning year, Parekh may be your best option. He will certainly be playing in Calgary’s top four and could potentially take over the number one defenseman role if Rasmus Andersson is moved (their Captain Mikael Backlund just confirmed it). With the Saginaw Spirit in the OHL, Parekh’s production was simply phenomenal (97 points in 2024 & 103 in 2025). It’s true that he was playing with Michael Misa (the co-favorite for the Calder next year alongside Gavin McKenna) and that Calgary does not have anyone remotely exciting up front, or any skaters for that matter, Parekh will get every chance to be special for their blueline. He does have issues on the defensive side of the puck, but that tends to matter less in Calder races. Perhaps a 70 point season and a resurgence of the Flames is in order.
Zeev Buium
Buium was dominant last year for Denver University, almost winning another national championship. He repeated at the World Juniors with back to back golds and even assisted on the game winning goal. If he was inserted into Hutson’s spot in the Montreal lineup last season, he probably would produce a similar amount of offense, with perhaps better play in his own zone. The problem with Buium’s Calder chances is that his coaching staff seems to not trust him very much. He was benched for overtime of the Wild’s game four loss to the Vegas Golden Knights and usually only played third pair minutes. That he had just played 35 minutes in a double overtime loss to Western Michigan a few days earlier is partly to blame. Another factor could be that Minnesota still hadn’t punched their postseason ticket when they signed him, preventing them from integrating him. Whatever the reason, the Wild staff will certainly integrate him into their lineup this season. Unfortunately, he just as certainly cannot expect No.1 defenseman minutes with Brock Faber in town but it would help if he could play with the former Golden Gopher on the top pair at some point this season.
Tier 3: prowlers
They are also serious candidates to win the award but there is at least one glaring hurdle they must overcome (usually out of their control).
Rutger McGroarty
McGroarty infamously demanded a trade from the Winnipeg Jets last summer after they refused to let him turn pro for the 2024 playoffs. He played the majority of last season in the AHL but had three points in five games at the end of the season. With Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust likely on the move this season, McGroarty will have a chance to play on Sidney Crosby’s line, hence why I have him ranked this high. (It would be in the Penguins’s best interests to let him develop next to Crosby). Even if he does not play with Crosby, he still could play with another legendary center in Evgeni Malkin. The freedom to play in the top six and on the power play with these legendary centers gives McGroarty 45-55 point upside with the potential for a sneaky Calder case. The major flaw in his case is that the media will say it’s Crosby or Malkin doing the work and that McGroarty’s case is less valid for it (particularly they will label him as overrated).
Ryan Leonard
Initially, I had Leonard as the main challenger to Demidov before I realized some major obstacles he would have to overcome. First, I should begin by stating the factors working in his favor: he was probably the best player in college hockey last year with Boston College (again scoring 30 goals), he is arguably the most talented rookie other than Demidov, and his impact flew under the radar after joining the Capitals for their playoff run. Unfortunately, “underrated” does not tend to win Calder trophies; production and media narratives do. The Capitals being a contender means that Leonard will be buried in the depth chart and possibly demoted to the AHL if he doesn’t get off to a great start, similar to McGroarty last year. His playstyle resembles more of a skilled power forward, like Tom Wilson, and may prevent him from racking up points early in the season, essentially taking him out of the Calder race by Christmas similar to his BC teammate Cutter Gauthier. Apparently, this season could also be Alex Ovechkin’s last in the NHL. If that is the case Washington certainly will not be patient with Leonard’s development and actually might dangle him as trade bait to give their legend one more chance at winning the Stanley Cup. Could anyone really blame them if the NHL’s all time leading goal scorer ever requested it? With this in mind, Leonard’s production upside is extremely limited at roughly 35-45 points but he could break out if traded elsewhere.
Sam Rinzel
After his NCAA tournament run with Minnesota abruptly ended in overtime, Rinzel had five points in nine games with Chicago. He is very NHL ready and the Blackhawks will give him every opportunity to grow into their number one defenseman while passing to Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar. He has 45 point upside as a defenseman which would constitute a strong Calder case.
Yaroslav Askarov
Admittedly, it is usually much more difficult for goaltenders to win awards in general, especially the Calder trophy, since they typically play less than 50 games and their position is inherently less flashy than skaters. If any goalie could steal the Calder this year it would be Askarov. Similar to Dustin Wolf’s situation last year, the Sharks are expected to be among the NHL’s worst teams. Askarov has demonstrated top prospect potential for years and shown why he was the eighth overall pick in 2020. He looked great after being called up last season. If the netminder can help San Jose compete for a wild card, he would certainly be a major player for the Calder.
Matthew Schaefer
Usually the first overall pick is an early favorite for the Calder trophy… that is unless he is a defenseman. Typically defensemen take longer to develop than forwards, hence why most spend a season or two in the AHL, college, Europe, or in juniors. Even the most recent defenseman to go first, Owen Power, opted to return to a stacked Michigan Wolverines super team, for his draft plus one year. Schaefer will not have this option since he recently signed his entry level contract (meaning he can’t compete with an NCAA school) and he is far too excellent of a prospect to send back to the Erie Otters (especially after they just lost their best player Malcolm Spence to Michigan). The Islanders traded Noah Dobson to Montreal this offseason envisioning Schaefer being their number one defenseman but this could be horrific for his development. Schaefer is a late birthday, so he doesn’t turn 18 until September. Entrusting an 18 year old with such lavish responsibilities rarely pans out and can cripple a defenseman’s confidence later on. The only recent example of this working out long term is with Rasmus Dahlin, but he didn’t regain his confidence until the 2022 season under a new coach. Expect this year to be one of pain and growing for Schaefer and the Islanders that won’t take home a Calder.
Gabriel Perreault
The New York Rangers may be the most interesting team to watch for in 2025-26. For the past 6 years, the Rangers have alternated between seasons of growth and disappointment. If the trend continues, they should grow and take a step this year. Perreault was Leonard’s partner in crime for the past four years with both the NTDP and Boston College but now enters unfamiliar territory in New York. He was pointless in the last five games of the year as New York ended their 2025. Will he be part of the Rangers turnaround? He certainly has the potential but he truly could benefit from time in the AHL, where finesse prospects like him tend to benefit. The Rangers have a terrible history with development, going back to Lias Andersson and Alexis Lafreniere; it would be best to keep him away from an environment in New York that could grow toxic if the Rangers underperform early again. Unfortunately, the Rangers have a tendancy to rush their prospects to the NHL which could turn Gabe Perreault into a bust. If they do so, expect around a 30 point output for Perreault. If the Rangers are prudent, look for Perreault to come back and contend for the Calder next season.
Tier 4: the rearview racers
These are very talented players, but not only will they have to overcome multiple obstacles to showcase their potential, they will also need the players in the tiers above to underperform.
Sam Dickinson
Like Schaefer, Dickinson signed his entry level deal, preventing him from joining a school in the NCAA. He has similarly demonstrated that he is too NHL ready to be sent down to OHL again, which means the Sharks will have to play him in their NHL lineup. His forward group is loaded with scorers such as Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, and William Eklund. If Dickinson can develop a great first pass to his stars up front, maybe he has a sneaky good Calder case. His great defense will not help as much in this race as it will to San Jose winning, but it certainly will help.
Alex Nikishin
Many view the KHL as the best non-NHL hockey league, even above the AHL. For years, Nikishin was the top NHL-affiliated prospect and he finally joined the Hurricanes this spring. He jumped into the playoffs for four games and did not look out of place. His game tends to be very defensive which does not bode well for his Calder chances. As well, the Hurricanes defense is very loaded at the moment, particularly on the left side where Jacob Slavin and K’Andre Miller are ahead of him on the depth chart. The Hurricanes tend to slow cook their prospect developments so Nikishin probably starts on the third pair and wastes his only shot at the Calder.
Bradly Nadeau
While the Hurricanes tend to slow cook their development, Nadeau may be the exception. Carolina has had a gaping hole at second line center, so it follows that they will give Nadeau a chance to fill that hole right away. He impressed during his one season in the AHL last year. If he sticks as the 2C, he could actually produce as many as 50 points.
Artyom Levshunov
Levshunov was once hyped as a ‘game changer’ by NHL.com‘s draft experts. The excitement died down over this past year when his production dipped in the AHL after a dominant season at Michigan State. He looked subpar with Chicago in the big leagues and will have to take the next step this upcoming year. Obviously, Rinzel will start higher in the depth chart but Levshunov is a sleeper to take over the top spot in Chicago’s defense corps. Still, his Calder potential is very limited given his lack of production upside.
Isaac Howard
Howard has arguably the biggest range of possibilities. The Oilers lost a majority of their depth on the wing this offseason, giving Howard a chance to play on Connor McDavid’s line. Howard is coming off a Hobey Baker winning season at Michigan State. The big problem for Howard is that McDavid’s contract will expire next summer and Edmonton will be pressured to build an impressive enough roster immediately to convince their generational talent to re-sign. Howard would have to immediately outperform the other wingers in camp, and make sure to produce well enough alongside McDavid and/or Draisatel such that coach Knoblauch doesn’t opt to give the other wingers another look. He also would have to hope the players below him still produce enough to not compel Knoblauch to pair McDavid and Draisatel together (which would demote Howard in the lineup). The better Howard performs, the more attractive he is as a trade asset; if McDavid still isn’t satisfied with his roster, Howard, as the only prospect of significant value in Edmonton, is the most likely to be dealt for one of the superstars on expiring contracts who could become available by the deadline. If he doesn’t perform well, he could be demoted to the AHL early on similar to McGroarty.
Tier 5: the warmups
All three of these players will be superb NHLers in short order, but their clubs may opt to send them down to the AHL to sharpen their game and avoid being manhandled in the show. Sending them to the AHL can preserve their Calder eligibility for next season, making this season a warmup bid.
Axel Sandin Pellikka
The Swedish defenseman has been simply spectacular the past two world juniors for team Sweden. He will be a Calder trophy candidate when he does see regular minutes in the NHL, but that may be next season or later. Yzerman tends to also slow cook his prospects. Often, players from Europe will have a few troubles adjusting to the smaller North American ice, and this is especially true for defensemen, so it might be beneficial to start Sandin Pellikka in the AHL for this season before fully unleashing him next year. He has lots of offensive upside and could be the one to help Detroit back to the postseason as soon as next year, which probably would make him a Calder frontrunner. He may receive a call up at the end of the year if he dominates the AHL (for his Calder chances next season he better hope the call up comes with 24 or less games left in Detroit’s regular season).
Easton Cowan
Mitch Marner’s scrutinized departure from the Maple Leafs leaves a gaping hole in the Maple Leafs wing slots. Could that hole be filled by Cowan? Their first round pick from 2023 has been dominant with the London Knights alongside Dickinson, appearing in back to back Memorial Cups and winning it this year against McKenna and the Medicine Hat Tigers. The fans are expecting him to be their second line left wing next to John Tavares (similar to Michael Bunting) but perhaps expectations need to be tempered. The Maple Leafs have arguably the most negative fan base in professional sports. Cowan’s confidence could be shattered rapidly if Toronto doesn’t carefully develop their promising prospect correctly. Some time in the AHL (since he is 20 he can play there) away from the overwhelming media coverage of the Leafs could be beneficial. If Cowan dominates, perhaps like Sandin Pellika, he could be called up late in the season and in time for the playoffs (although voting is done before the postseason).
Matthew Savoie
Savoie was dealt to the Oilers for Ryan McLeod in one of the more shocking deals of last summer. At the time, this was viewed as a major win for the Oilers and many called it one of many horrific deals from Buffalo’s perspective. McLeod turned in a breakout 55 point season that Edmonton desperately could have used in the Stanley Cup Final while Savoie played all but four games in the AHL. The only reason is even on this list, frankly, is due to the potential he showed five years ago, causing him to be projected as the first overall pick in the 2022 draft. He still has shown glimpses of this potential but time is running out for him to establish himself as an NHLer, especially with a newcomer like Howard (their new premiere prospect) already ahead of him in the pecking order.
Calder prediction: Ivan Demidov
To answer the question, this truly is Demidov’s award to lose. He already looked like a superstar from his debut, and the rough patches against Washington in the postseason can be attributed to two factors: first, his KHL team, St. Petersburg, had his contract rights until June 1, meaning they could bar him from joining Montreal until June 1, and, consequentially, the Canadiens were not as prepared to integrate him into their lineup. As well, this meant Demidov didn’t have as much time to adjust to his new settings, such as living arrangements, living in Montreal, and the travel. This summer, those issues should be worked out. Training camp will be an opportunity for the Habs to figure out when, how, and with who to use him.
Among this class of rookies, I predict Ivan Demidov to rise to the top and claim the Calder Memorial Trophy.
