Jack Eichel would undoubtably be the first overall pick in almost every draft. Unfortunately, his draft class of 2015 featured arguably the greatest prospect in NHL history: Connor McDavid. Of course, Eichel himself was an elite prospect. In his lone season at Boston University, Eichel accomplished the following: became just the second freshman to win the Hobey Baker, helped Boston University to a Beanpot title, and led BU to a third period lead in the national championship game. Suffice to say, it was no secret he would be headed to the Buffalo Sabres at second overall. Unfortunately, despite promising starts almost every season, he could not help Buffalo return to the postseason for the first time since 2011. During the covid-shortened 2021 season, Eichel sustained a neck injury on March 7 and never played for the Sabres again. The player and team ferociously debated between surgeries and recover for eight months, reigniting trade rumors, before the star center was dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights in a deal has since aged horrifically for Buffalo. Vegas actually missed the playoffs in 2022, but came back to win the Stanley Cup in 2023 (of course, in large part thanks to Eichel). They have disappointed the past two years, losing to the Dallas Stars in seven games in 2024 and to the Edmonton Oilers in five games this past spring.
Player performance
The 2015-16 season was an extremely promising one for the Sabres. Eichel finished fourth in Calder voting but contributed 56 points in 81 games to the Sabres season and inspired hope. He would maintain a near point per game pace for the next two seasons while battling a couple notable injuries before his eight-year, $84 million contract extension began. He led the Sabres to impressive starts the next two seasons, and finished over a point per game in both. In 2019-20, he finished eigth in voting despite the Sabres finishing 13th in the Eastern Conference as voters realized his 82 points in 77 games was simply unignorable considering the lack of talent in Buffalo. A great testament to Eichel’s performance over this time is Jeff Skinner’s 40 goal season in 2018-19 as a direct result of playing with Eichel. The 2021 Buffalo Sabres entered the season with more optimism having signed superstar winger Taylor Hall but ended up being one of the worst teams in NHL history, partially due to Eichel’s underperformance (18 points in 21 games). He would initially struggle with the Golden Knights in 2022, only producing 25 points in 34 games, but improved to 66 points in 67 games the following regular season. The best performance of his career came in his first postseason when he scored six goals and assisted on 20 goals as the Golden Knights fulfilled owner Bill Foley’s prophecy of winning the Stanley Cup within six years. 2023-24 was an ordinary year by his standards, producing at a point-per-game rate. This past regular season was by far his best and most complete, garnering a fifth place finish in the Selke race and becoming a finalist for the Lady Byng award while producing a career high 94 points in 77 games. Unfortunately, he was rather disappointing in the post season and frankly disappeared against the Oilers. He has four all star game selections throughout his career (2018, 2019, 2020, 2025).
Internationally, he has played in a couple rather meaningless World Championships. His only significant “international” tournament since being drafted was the Four Nations. His performance unfortunately did leave a lot to be desired (especially when compared to McDavid’s) with no goals and just four assists.
The NHL is obviously a much harder league to dominate than the NCAA. However, after watching Eichel compile 71 points in just 40 games, the pure point production can be considered slightly disappointing to what we expected. His raw production as a Sabres significantly outpaces his production since being welcome to Las Vegas. On the contrast, his defensive development has been a very pleasant surprise. It was one of his few weaknesses as a prospect and has now become a strength. Injuries do factor into this evaluation but it is also quite disappointing that Eichel has only made four out of nine all star teams (2021 did not have an all star game). His playoff performances have been slightly better with this most recent series against Edmonton being his only real blemish. Given his prospect billing as a rival to McDavid, he has neither underwhelmed nor overachieved personally. (Above expectation performance in Buffalo but slightly underwhelming in Vegas personally).
Team success
For sure the most polarizing topic, Eichel’s teams have had wildly contrasting results. Skipping over the 2023 Stanley Cup win for now, Eichel’s teams have missed the postseason in seven of nine years. His tenure in Buffalo is arguably one of the bigger failures in hockey’s history. Not only did the Sabres failed to even challenge for a playoff spot, they still needed to tank (purposely losing for a higher draft pick) in spite of having Eichel, not once but twice for first overall picks in 2018 and 2021. There is no question that his Sabres tenure, although not really his fault, was a catastrophie.
His four seasons in Vegas are also quite difficult to evaluate. Initially missing the playoffs in 2022 is also one of the major disappointments in NHL history (even when considering the injuries they suffered) alongside the 2004 Colorado Avalanche as overhyped superteams who failed to fulfill expectations. They were a wild card in 2023 but did won the weaker Pacific division in both 2023 and 2025. Unfortunately, their postseason performances (again ignoring the 2023 postseason for now) have paled in comparison; Vegas has also won just one round the past two postseasons. If the 2023 season’s success had not occurred, his tenure in Vegas would also be considered a major letdown.
However, the goal of every professional sports team is to win their league’s championship. This is arguably twice as true in hockey, so winning just one Stanley Cup, as Eichel and the Golden Knights did in 2023, can negate almost anything. While some may claim the path to the Stanley Cup was rather easy, a championship is more than enough to consider his Vegas tenure a success. Is this also enough to override his lack of success in Buffalo? Most players will have more year over year success but so few win a Stanley Cup in their career. If a fan from 2015 was told Eichel would be lifting Lord Stanley with an expansion team inducted just six years ago, at the time, but also that he would otherwise never appear in a conference final, they would likely tell you that he passes this category and his team success should not be called disappointing.
Rest of career prospects
Vegas has been the most aggressive team in both the free agent and trade markets since about 2020. This summer, they signed one of Eichel’s fellow 2015 draftees in Mitch Marner to an eight year contract, presumably signing him for the rest of career. They also recently traded for Noah Hanifin (another 2015 draftee) and extended him long term as well. Eichel’s contract will expire next summer but extension talks have begun, with the cap hit reportedly having the potential to hit $15 million.
Obviously how the rest of his career plays out is fully dictated by whether or not he stays in Vegas or goes elsewhere, presumably because he is satisfied with his one Stanley Cup and is looking to be paid more. Assuming he stays in Vegas (the most likely scenario), the Golden Knights Stanley Cup window is probably open for another four years, generously. Playing with Marner should unlock new heights for his goal scoring ability (he has only two 30+ goal seasons) and possibly result in as many as three more cups for Vegas before the stars consider retirement. Obviously, the most likely scenario is that Vegas makes three more conference finals instead, with one or two Stanley Cup Final appearances, and possibly winning their second Stanley Cup. Should he go elsewhere, the only teams we could see offering him this kind of opportunity would be the Montreal Canadiens and Utah Mammoth.
Conclusion
The first ten years of Jack Eichel’s career, in totality, has been exactly what we expected; it has just lived up to the hype. His personal production has been exactly as advertised and he has already captured the Stanley Cup. To maintain this status, he would have to elevate his offense in this modern age of increased goal scoring, and make a few (2-3) more deep postseason runs during the back half of his career.
